Tony Seba's 2027 battery prediction is about to happen 3 YEARS EARLY!

I have just bought a BMW i4. At first glance, you'd say it's an expensive electric car. But if you compare it with the petrol car (430i Grand Coupe) that looks almost identical, the price difference is ZERO. So in some cases we are already at the same price level.

Hydrogen puts pressure on prices as well as it develops fast

Tony Sebas "S" curve for EV adoption in America is flat wrong. He fails to take into consideration Americans that value freedom of choice. Americans hate being told what to buy or not buy especially by their government. They highly value concepts like, "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" that emanates from freedom of individual choice. It's NOT about cost, or range, or charging etc. The average Americans response to the EV transition is,,,,"I just don't want one". Tony Seba does not get this very firm concept. Americans will tie their decisions to concepts like the constitution just as Elon Musk does with the 1st amendment and X. Do not underestimate an Americans adherence to principles.

At today's exchange rate, US$50/kWh is 355 Chinese Yuan/kWh. 320Y/kWh is US$45/kWh.

You lost me with EVs are a better product. I can't believe people listen to this fool.

I didn't hate evie's until I Saw the results and what's happening. E v are toys for rich people ford gm no more evs. What a waste. You cant even resell an ev easy

It’s difficult to know when to buy a new Bev as you keep saying the prices will go down in the future.

I’m buying as much Tesla stock as I can for the next 20 years 🤣 you’ll be sorry you didn’t

Technology progresses and the EV deniers will be proved wrong. What I think is funny is that if there is a wide spread electrical blackout, EV deniers will be caught short as they will find fuel pumps useless and no fuel can be manufactured without electricity.
VHS and Betamax duked it out and VHS won. Now Chademo, CCS and NACS are at it and it looks like NACS is the winner. It appears the infrastructure is going to be messed up for quite some time.
I believe that with care my 10 year old Leaf battery could last another 10 years giving the lie to the deniers.
I find a wait and see attitude works best.
I remember when DVD players were over 1,000 dollars, now I can pick up a Blu Ray player for 10 dollars at a second hand store.
Bob Dylan was right. Times are changing.

Cheep doesn't equal range. If the EV can't go at least 500 miles and completely recharge in less than 15 minutes, don't bother me.

Modern EVs are a great advancement in vehicle technology. The support infrastructure for them is very inhibitory for many people and places however. Electricity generation and transmission capacity is not good enough in many places, not to mention the charging equipment to serve EVs.
Cold temperatures are a problem. 0c, not really an issue, but when you're at -30c... EVs are either totally dead, or the efficiency drops dramatically. There are many places in the world where -20 to -40c temperatures are common in the winter. This is a problem for ICE vehicles as well, especially diesels, but those problems can be overcome with some small efforts. There are products and strategies to mitigate the problems presented by extreme cold temperatures for ICEs. The only viable solution so far for EVs is to keep the battery warm enough.. which means expending energy even when not using the vehicle. This wouldn't really be an insurmountable disadvantage if the vehicles were designed with an internal battery heating system that prevents the battery from dying due to dropping below a certain temperature, but those systems are not built in, yet.
I think EVs are going to be the future. But we're not quite there yet.

The EV haters have already started to change tack on the topic of EVs' sticker prices. They now talk of the crazy depreciation earlier buyers incur because of the fall in prices!

Tony Seba has been way more right than wrong on his predictions regarding disruptive technology. Makes me laugh to hear than he underpredicted the timeline for electric battery costs coming down! He is the man and the source I listen too. Thanks for pointing this out!

It’s not really a bloodbath. Kind of an ice bath. Winter is the death of the EV. And believe it or not, winter happens at least like once a year.

Great video Sam I agree on the EV car side but public charging infrastructure compared to petrol station. Charging has a long long way to go. Yes I know once upon a time we didn’t have petrol stations evangelists, but the fact remains ice infrastructure has a 100 year head start. I can hardly wait to see when EV delivers a similar or better experience than ice .

Sam. I know you are one eyed about EVs.
How bout you do some forcasting yourself. Forget for one moment your sponsors and project some real possibilities?
These may include Toyotas water fueled ICV
Fusion battery powered EVs.
Cmon mate share it

The Electric Wanker

Appreciate your video, Sam. Hope you and your wife are well.

I like how this guy is so excited for our planets future. This is how we all should be :)

Thanks

They need to drop way more than 50% if we want asecond hand/recycle market tho. lithium mining is terrible, anyhtinmg to stop that

As I understand it, a combustion engine in a vehicle requires a radiator and regular oil changes. An EV does not require either. Correct me if I'm wrong. Are these things factored into the cost of a combustion engine vehicle?

This is what I'm waiting for, thanks Sam.

After reading comments a while... Big business is crying about the need for cobalt in ALL the electric batteries. Huh? LFPs have no cobalt. And recycling is gaining ground on cobalt, too.
Powerwalls and other home batteries would not drop by 50% since the unit is not all lithium, but they might come down 30% or so which would make them a great deal for even people who can't have solar due to zoning laws. The era of blackouts and brownouts may someday be over due to a decentralized grid of batteries.
This will accelerate the depreciation of used electric vehicles and lower their value. Ii may not have to wait for a Tesla 2.😀

Great the price will reduce! But will the makers hand the savings to the customers or just increase their profits ?

EV might be cheaper but the price of electricity is now exploding. Per mile driven, charging an EV now costs more than a refuelling a diesel car, this despite the heavy taxes on diesel and gasoline.
EV will still remain more expensive.

When E2Grid is fully standardised in Australia, I’m interested. Not before then.
It’s a huge battery on wheels. My house wants a battery more than my wheels do.
House battery not worth it.

The infrastructure where I live isn’t prepared for a huge change to EV. If the batteries are going to dramatically change the price so will the purchase price.

So why are so many EV sales stalled in the US?

Yeah, there will be a bloodbath, because nobody wants to buy EVs. Keep deluding yourself

There’s a bloodbath in EV sales. What absolute shitboxes. A 50% battery price reduction is laughable! So a battery is. “only” 20 grand not 40. 😂. Lithium is an absolute scam.

Great news Viking! Love Tony Seba and Rethink X - great battery assembly videos! Will buy an EV ASAP!

We must stop burning stuff!!

Is it still so that only 5% of ev batteries are recycled today? Where are we heading in regards of that...?

Pls make a video about the quality and cycles. Nobody wants a stranded asset in less than 10 years because it’s cheaper to buy new than replace the battery.

Cycles matters more than today’s market share will tell you. The used market and full life cycle including recycling expenses and energy budget still rarely are mentioned.

After listening to this cast and reading the comments, I felt that a comment from someone outside the bubble (which I think is the viewpoint of many in America) was in order. The EV is a great concept whose time has not yet come. The focus of this article is that EV’s will be cheaper. That is not the problem for many. A fundamental improvement in battery tech is essential. I would need an EV with double to triple the range of the current, that is cold insensitive, that charges in minutes, and that has a zero probability of catching fire in my garage. I would also need a significant build out of charging infrastructure, with good maintenance so that half of the chargers at a given charge facility aren’t inoperable. I understand that solid state batteries in the research stage may address some of these issues. But that is then, and this is now. I am pro environment by the way, but not enough to entangle myself in a technology that simply isn’t ready. An additional elephant in the room, is that the environment does not end at America’s borders … it is planetary. And if we took our vehicle emissions to zero globally, it would barely move the needle, because there is currently a massive buildout of coal fired power plants in China, India, and the developing world. These folks either don’t care or don’t have the trillions of dollars in available assets to make a green transition happen. I will buy an EV when the technology matures, because every little bit helps. But for true progress to be made, the elephant must be addressed.

Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure. Make any progress on that in America? Not in the last 50 yrs….

Exciting times, and if the new geothermal power generation plants work out as advertised we really will have a far cleaner future.

Unlike internal combustion vehicles, EV's will have a ZERO trade in value when it comes time to purchasing a new conveyance after whatever refresh interval is established.... commercial fleets are far more frequent than the average middle class family, but either way, EV's are a disposable product......there will be ZERO EV dealerships accepting your previous EV in trade value (which won't exist) for a new EV, or any vehicle for that matter..... you would probably be charged a recycling/disposal fee to be honest!

Recycling a lithium ion battery is too labor intensive. Sent it to india, pakistan and sri lanka might be economical.

Where can one buy batteries for the best price? For solar residential applications

A 60 kWh battery at $50 per kWh is $3000. That is insanely low! And as these cars hit the road in mass and start to hit the used car market there will be used batteries sold for EVEN CHEAPER. Owning an EV in a few years would be dirt cheap. Low fuel cost, significantly less maintenance, and the only major component that is able to break down (battery) on its own can be fixed by replacing a few damaged cells (couple hundred dollars in parts and labor) or just getting a whole new battery for around $3000 or a refurbished battery for even less. The batteries will last for at least 200,000 miles.

Gas cars are over.

he predicted we would have FSD by 2021. that lidar would be really cheap, but its not cheap enough use it. he predicted lab grown meat would be cheaper and better than it is now. he made some correct predictions and some wrong ones. stop treating him like an infallable oracle.

Thanks for making me aware of Tony. Really interesting and informative, just like your videos. Keep up the good work 😊

That's a great report. Toyota, Honda and their like are clueless about these developments. Their ICE market is going to melt ten times faster than they imagine.

Too bad Musk went to the dark side !

Climate change is killing everything Indy 6th great mass Extinction very fast ! No matter how you look at it you have to change fuel !

Great video. Thanks!

The future can’t be Li-ion. Even if EVs cost the same as petrol cars, the take rates would continue to be low because overall the tech is flawed when considering the cost and environmental cost to dispose and replace.