When Would Michael Burry SELL His ALIBABA STOCK?

$175 to $200

I would begin to reduce above 230$.But since I only hold the FXI index I should probably give no advice. BUt this will also be good for my LVMH position.😀

I am in the camp, lock it away for 10 years and forget about it in the next 10 years. 10 baggers are hard to achieve when you look at it constantly.

A 10 baggers on a 250B company in the next 10 years is 2.5T, does not sound too far fetched.

I'm new to trading, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.

I always DCA the same way down as i do up .
I sell a percentage after a 30-40% gain or from the moment i feel it has reached a fair value, just to get my initial investment out or to set some cash aside.
I never sell everything to prevent FOMO.
Example is palantir
I bought at $13 , and sold 40% at $25 and another 40% at $32 .
I still leave a small amount in just to keep me from fomoing in. And for me this works , i dont feel so bad for selling early because i still have some invested, and when the price drops i can buy in again at a reasonable price if the thesis hasn't changed.

MY trade price is 130.00 I been a long time holder of baba and not selling a single share until it reach 300.00

Nothing has changed about BABA's business. Last week's jump was all due to CCP's rate cut and other policy changes. What happened to US and China conflict and geopolitical risk? Will US raise tariff or even ban the imports from China?

Good vid guys. I like the rationale for your target price.

When you say 5% FCF yield net cash as a target price you implicitly assume that all unprofitable segments and equity holdings that pay no dividends are worth negative value. I suggest that Ant, Lazada, Cainao, Freshippo, Media, and countless AI startup equities are worth quite a bit. $300-350.

This is a B wave more than likely

How people here are deaming about old stock price high. just because a little bit of stimulus while not solving any problem, it`s comical.

I've learned a lot about cryptocurrency advancements and want to get involved. I'm hoping to find a good mentor.

EPS is the next big catalyst for Alibaba for the coming years. This is wahr I call the Apple model - buying heavily your own stock back, will increase EPS, just because there is substantially less shares. Consider, in addition if BABA grows 5%, then you have the perfect set up for a 2x. On the other hand - it is an economy of scale model, like Amazon. EPS or FCF is not that important, what counts is Revenue growth and customer numbers.

I would like to express the conclusions I reached because I am feeling the same. As it approaches the intrinsic value, I begin to lose margin of safety and accumulate risk. Any profit you lose on something that continues to be overvalued is not "selling too early", it is starting to be speculative. They are "losses" that I am willing to lose because from the beginning my strategy was not to make "profits" with risky speculations trying to predict the future price movement. I'm sharing it just in case it helps someone. I think the important thing is to focus on the point where it becomes risky due to overpricing and not think so much about the price continuing to rise after the day you sell.

Other than Coke and Amex, Buffett’s average holding period for stocks is 2.5 years. Definitely not a longterm investor. What he says and what he actually does are often completely different.

Keeping up with current trends and strategies can help traders stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions, It is important for beginners in trading and investing to understand that success in these fields requires technical analysis, emotional maturity, and self-discipline. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!

I am impressed with your update on these stocks, now my question is which is best to buy at this time. I have some liquid assets to diversify.

Are you a renter or an investor? Minor overvaluation is a terrible reason to sell. Vinnys 5% cash flow yield is backwards looking isnt it? Once you factor in any growth then you get that 5% cash accrual plus thr growth. So if 6% then your return are more like 11% with no valuation expansion

With regard to BABA price target, there are many ways to calculate intrinsic value.

Here is one calculation that I use. If you calculate Revenue CAGR from Mar'15 (CNY 76,204) to Mar'20 (CNY 509,711), I arrive at 46.2% CAGR (before the pandemic and lockdown).
Looking at the last 5 year for CAGR and using this number to project the next 5 year revenue growth can be misleading as social/economic situation is vastly different. As China is moving out of pandemic and lockdown, I think it's more relevant to look at periods before this event. So, if I do DCF using 30% (to be conservative), I arrive at price target $760. China is still very young country. I think BABA can CAGR at very high level (their GDP is only $12.2 k).

Another growth impetus is their AI.
BABA and GOOGL are the only cloud companies that are both, cloud provider and own their own AI.
They say over 80% of data is on-prem (on-premises), because storing data in cloud is very expensive.
I haven't had first-hand experience with Alibaba cloud, but if they can achieve even 10% of the performance
of NVDA A100, there is huge market for cloud/AI service in China and the world.

Cheers,

Nick Sleep.

Get your gloves ready to catch the dip!

I forgot to add the comment to my post that for BABA to achieve its intrinsic value ($760 or higher), China would have to institute real structural economic/government reform. When a country is a totalitarian state, they generally start with economic reform before it undergoes political reform.

$120

Keep holding through all the pain while it’s a super great business doesn’t make any sense to sell it just above 200$ . Big potential for multi bagger here, think 500$ and above

$500 dollar $BABA

i just sold at 114 a share

Short term: and what if chinese economy not reagate on stimulus? If people still not buying this will fall back. Long term: baba loosing market share bc of temu.

FYI - I’m buying BIDU this morning. It’s in the lower end of the price range that Michael Burry may have been buying in Q1 2024 (assuming he bought the lows in Q1)

What’s your baba target price?