How I Use LEAP OPTIONS to WIN With Tesla Stock

Tbanks Jo. Good video. For someone who is a beginner and new to LEAPS, what strike price and Expiration would you recommend for a Tesla Leap to enter today? Thank you.

- This is just the beginning of the ailing economy in the US, and don't unrealistically dream that Tesla cars are on the way ... which look like a pile of slop and are not attractive to anyone.

The USD would continue to fall, also in 2026 and in 2027 ...

- Many new electric cars are on the way to Europe, and without the big tariffs, much cheaper than Tesla, and technically with better construction.

- D. Trump is talking about 50 percent tariffs on the EU, who will buy these Tesla cars, which look like a big pile of slop... and with 50 percent tariffs ... forget it...

PS Sell ​​your Tesla shares before the US recession hits, and do not squeeze the lemon further.
AI is developing in Europe too...and to a greater extent. Musk is known for unrealistic plans, and cars are not exactly his domain.

On Friday May 16th, Tesla stock increased by 7.16, but fell after hours by almost $10! Joe and some of the others do you have an explanation for this? Was the some bad news that I cannot find? I would appreciate your thoughts and responses on this. Thank you and best wishes

I enjoy watching your videos, but I have one important suggestion which I hope you will implement. When you are showing tables and charts Etc, it would be helpful and increase Clarity in your uploads if you would ALWAYS, reduce the size of your image talking into a small corner of the screen, the charts and tables would be clearer and much easier to follow. You do do this, but not consistently.... Presently your image often takes up HALF the screen which seems so unnecessary! Very often the charts image is cut off on the edges. For example the black scholes model you attempt to show is only partially visible! Please consider making these changes. Thank you and best wishes

I'm 100% stock and staying that way into retirement.... Anyone else? Thanks

Isn't this the same thing that Option Strat does? Genuinely asking, thanks!

When you discuss predicted performance of the option strike chosen and the stock price you speak as if the percentages are comparable "for the same money" as you state. Obviously, this is not the case since you get much more exposure in options "for the same money". For example, you could spend $10K on option contracts yielding only 20%, but make more gains than the same $10K invested into the stock yielding 30%.

Wow! This is fascinating, thank you for sharing this. I currently own Jun 2026 leaps, and I am going to definitely play around with this now and roll them out if it means I'm getting a better return. Thank you for your efforts!

Would OptionStrat not calculate the same thing?

Your onscreen video was cut off on the left - by about 1/3 so - much more difficult to follow your narrative . (On every platform I tried ) - phone/TV/ lap top/ desktop .

Chief Pioneer TechnoAlphaKing comes thru for the pioneerland family!! Your insight of the skewed returns of 6,9,15,18 months vs a 12month of empirical modeling of an option was insightful. Thanks for sharing about your sale of the June 2026 $800 strike! Did you replace with a 15 or 18 month or earlier? DEC 2026 $800 strike?
Can you someday summarize your personal thoughts on what you learned options based upon your 90 pct confidence assumptions of $488 by Aug 2025 and something like $600 by Dec 2025 or $1000 by June 2026? Great job on winning?!

Good video, but I’m still torn on if it’s better to sell a percentage of shares and buy leaps. It seems way more risky (if my timing is not 100% perfect) than just owning the stock outright. There are just too many variables that has to be exactly right for me to outperform the stock - the most unpredictable being the macro environment, which is just a 🎲 roll. So I’ll just keep holding for now.

Thanks for sharing. This was very interesting!

pretty easy using optionstrat

hey Jo! Why has the DEC26 Call only 20% of performance compared to 30% of the stock itself? And once it becomes a 1Y option which is also worse than the 6mo Call…

Would that mean one better think about buying the stock and regularly some 6mo calls (in case you’re bullish)

That was incredible, Jo. Thank you for sharing this with us.

So a few things that you (or perhaps your professor) misunderstood about the Black-Scholes model that makes your presentation of it a bit disingenuous:

1. The Black-Scholes models European-style options where one can execute the option only on the expiration date and not before. The vast majority of all options being traded today are American-style where the option can be executed any time between the purchase date and the expiration date. The American-style option pricing is much more difficult to model, so its price can actually vary widely from the European-style counterpart.

2. The Black-Scholes model isn't meant to predict the actual price of the option in the real-world, since those are determined by the market. What the Black-Scholes model predicts is the risk-neutral price of an option. That is, it predicts the price of an option assuming no party assumes any risk. Since markets are all about the risk-reward tradeoff, very few participants in the market are trading from a risk-neutral perspective. However, the Black-Scholes model is useful for the cases where an investor is trying to purchase options to balance out some of the risk in another position (creating an option spread).

3. In order to be correct, the Black-Scholes model requires an input that represents the future volatility of the asset being traded. Obviously that value can't be known beforehand, only estimated, so the error in the predicted and actual volatility will also impact the option price. I'm assuming this is the recursively updated parameter you were talking about in your video.

Hi Joe. Big fan! How can I get access to this google sheet?

Good stuff!

Do leap options for TSLA vary greatly between brokers? Who is the best broker for LEAPS?

AI prompt
program a script with following inputs:
> csv sheets with all option-chains with unterlaying TSLA

we need sliders for:
> expiration timepoint
> predicted shareprice at expiration timepoint

show result in a graph:
> x-axis: time
> y-axis: gained buck per day and per invested buck
> highlight maximum gainpoint 💵💵💵

Problem: I'm just to simple minded to get something to run like this...🤣😉🙃dang it...

Jo Jo Jo. Wish I had seen this over a year ago! I’ve lost my ass playing with options. I do have one call I got when it was $180 to expire in Jan of 2026 and hope I get my negative margin back to positive numbers

Time decay is non-linear!!
And implied volatility/interest rates change, so the theoretical price before expiry could deviate very significantly from the actual.

Superb video Jo. Very informative - thank you!

Just send all your money to the AFD or the orange Dictator!:)

Thanks for the forecast! I need some advice: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (wonder obey dial dash soon tank spike scout region undo zero such). What's the best way to send them to Binance?

I recommend ThinkOrSwim options software. Everything's right there... You can put almost anything you want into the option chain. There's also the Analyze Tab, which shows everything dynamically through time or price.
Using the greek (Theta), one can see the extrinsic value decay per day on any individual option, or on a whole portfolio.

Robbo Taxi is more about regulation as well, not just technology. You need the infrastructure, you need regulation and insurance schemes around liability. How are accidents handled? Who is liable in the case of an accident or death? Tesla the company who provides the software or the owner of the vehicle. How is the data that is being collected stored?

Many unanswered questions. We will not have Robbo taxis in any meaningful way near term and it will mostly only be concentrated in CBDs of a handful of cities.

I have a high conviction in this Tesla leap for Dec 2026.

I have 4 total. I bought two more to bring down my DCA when tariff and Elon FUD was high.
I’m up 116% at market close today.

Thank you for insights.

JO can't see your black Scholes indicator

I bought march $600 and found going out one more month the price jumped from $5.85 to over $10

TSLA rally of 100% in month from $100 to $200 was fueled by call buying which caused a gamma squeeze. No one would want to buy a stock that doubled in a month so the MM will liquidate hedges (stock in case of gamma squeeze). I would sell TSLA if you have gains,I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $138k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?

I don't understand these fancy moves but I bought 2X leveraged Tesla-based ETFs and now I'm up 80%. Would it be better to do leaps or is it not worth worrying about? I noticed that when Tesla goes up, for example, 5% then one of these 2X leveraged ETFs will go up 9.84% and the other will go up 8.76%. I don't understand the math but the mental model in my imagination has worked well.

Jo is such a hidden gem. He is quickly becoming the voice of reason within the Tesla trading community.

Great video!

Great show!

I like Excel and that's a cool little tool that you build but doesn't think or swim give you that same information in the analyze tab? Also the reality is you probably don't want to buy any strike except for the big fat round numbers like 25, 50 100.... So maybe like the 325 or 350 or 400 that kind of thing, Because usually that's where the most open interest is And you want to strike that has a lot of open interest because the market maker will absolutely screw you if you're just going to pick a random strike, with a lot of open interest the bid and ask is tighter.

When I see a bullish channel forming, intersecting the all time high on the third friday of July, and on that day the $420 Call reaches a price of exactly $69.
I do not see coincidence, I see providence. 🤭
(BTW, the July 18 420 Call is currently trading for $11.49 - so it's a 6x if "the prophecy" comes true)

When I was younger I analyzed the Black Scholes equation and figured out the major error with it was it cannot price disruption. I used this knowledge to buy OTM LEAPS on TSLA with every penny I had. I did very well. Caution this only works when TSLA is on a huge disruption tear. We had a couple already. The next ones are Robo Taxi and Optimus. I have started buying OTM LEAPS on TSLA. Slowly converting my TSLA shares 1X into TSLA LEAPS 4X. Trick is to not get greedy and switch back to TSLA Stock from TSLA LEAPS when the price rise starts to slow and months before expiration date. Remember theta will kill your LEAPS near expiration. Good Luck. Pray for Wisdom. ❤

Jo, Great video! Adding to your thoughts....You can add a sold Put (same strike, same expiry) to reduce the cost of this strategy. This is taught in Motley Fool Options service. Pick a strike near today's stock price. Buy a long dated Call, sell the Put and you have a much reduced entry price and a potentially much bigger gain!

I still don’t understand what leaps puts options calls are but I am going to study this video!

Jo!!! This is the most important thing I’ve learned in YEARS!!!! I’m 62 and a former senior banker. Son of a gun. When we meet one day I’m buying dinner. Well done my friend.

Thanks Jo, your model and explanation both reveal the mysterious mathematical undercurrent of leaps and bring home how things can go wrong. Would be helpful to learn exit strategies so don't go down with the Titanic.

Are you sure Tesla Stock goes to 1k basically a 3x with 99% certainty? I mean a big crises Like 1929 probably has higher odds than 1% and you still expect Tesla to 3x still in that case.

I agree in normal Economic developments Tesla will very likely reach that but external factors are higher than 1% or still no impact,

So James from IA talks about seeing the best delta when he picks a discount contract. Your model looks like it is helping rookies determine whether the contract has better value for the time decay. Yes or no?

Thanks Jo, because of you I've been buying my first LEAPS in the last couple weeks and they've been incredibly profitable. Admittedly, some were not LEAPS but short term gambles. Thanks for the inspiration!

The best way to understand options is to go loose a bunch of money on them. The second best way is to do the same thing but with a practice account that tracks what the theoretical performance would have been if it was real money.
It’s both incredibly simple and complex in the nuances where time decay and unknown massive swings make all the difference. I usually loose all my money and occasionally massively outperform, as such I treat options like educated gambling where holding the stock is much safer and guaranteed returns in the long term but if you time options well you can make absurd returns. 97% of my portfolio is long Tesla, 3% is call options on Tesla. I stress 0% on the prior and far too much on the latter. lol

Any thoughts on the extremely low numbers from China today?

Freaking awesome Jo. Thank you for the simplification and breaking down what others don't slow down to teach the common folk.