How Much Will China Risk for Taiwan? – Sarah Paine (Naval War College)

Until Trump came along and became a Russian asset..

They can risk and succeed now. Trump is setting up the USA for failure. Good a time as any now. The Oligarchs are taking all the monies, the nations civil servants are being gutted, Sciences gutted, Disease research has fallen under control of a wacko nut job, the list goes on. The USA has also betrayed its own allies and given Russia a huge win. Given China the space race with huge NASA cuts (given to Musk) and our own sciences and engineering schools are being cut. China wins in all those now. Plus they can out produce the US 20 to 1. The next war is lost.

Same for Democrats.

She is delusional as expected working for the US Navy. She does not understand China as expected and the US Navy is going downhill with very few advanced destroyers being built. Forget about aircraft carriers having to sail thousands of miles to fight a Chinese Navy and Chinese Rocket force in their own backyard.

We have a lot of educated people, but this woman has the intelligence to match her education!

She’s amazing

This is what the Democrat party in America would like to do...be like China.

Full of hypocrisy and bias. Looks like she got her info from the US main stream media. Be a real scholar, please.

Mrs. Paine., brilliant ⭐️

中国不可能放弃台湾，台湾岛离中国大陆太近了，如果由一个敌对势力(美军基地)占据那里，这将意味着，从这出发的战斗机和导弹能轻而易举的袭击，广东，福建，浙江，江苏，上海。这些中国最发达的部分。这是完全不可接受的，不管从哪个角度来说，或者谁来干涉，这对中国都是一个生死攸关的问题，必须不惜一切代价来确保安全。

An artillery barrage? Maybe artillery rockets since the Taiwan Strait is 100 miles across.

People tend to forget that Taiwan's official name is the Republic of China, and the claim of sovereignty over Formosa Island was not initiated by the PRC, but by the ROC which also claims several territories such as Aksai Chin, Arunachal Pradesh, the entire South China Sea, Tibet, and Mongolia, and even parts of every country bordering China that has been settled by the PRC are still claimed by the ROC to this day. If the situation were reversed, and the ROC controlled the Mainland, the Taiwan Strait conflict would still occur. So would the occupation of Tibet, the 1962 war with India and the border war with the USSR.

so she's basically advocating political control by the 1% oligarchies like the assholes running the USA. How'd that turn out?

Very good

Governments assess whether their policies benefit the people? What fairyland does she live in. Policies made by the U.S. may have a fig leaf of democracy but we all know those policies are intended to make rich people richer. Does anyone in the world look at the U.S. and see a thriving population? No, they see despair leading to addictions, violence, homelessness. Guns are readily available and citizens are using them to kill kids in school, people in the work place and on the streets. Of course, none of that is happening in China... so perhaps the CCP has the right formula for taking care of its citizens. One way to allow people to prosper and feel safe is to tell agitators who want to disrupt the system to shut up. Whose rights have precedence... not John Wayne but rather ordinary citizens. Sounds good to me. So China can keep Taiwan. They won't use the military to do that unless the U.S. provokes an independence movement.

First few minutes presents disinformation.lost credit

How much will the US sacrifice to protect the country we outsource our jobs to?

She is viewing this as these countries are wanting globalization.

LEAVE. TAIWAN. ALONE.

wouldn't it be better or more interesting for China to take Siberia?

Large parts of Siberia belonged to China until the nineteenth century, Siberia is rich in minerals, oil, gas, etc. and is sparsely populated and Russia is poor, the people of Siberia would have a significantly better economy and standard of living under Chinese rule.

Taiwan, on the contrary, lacks raw materials, is rich and the population does not want to end up under Chinese occupation which would create misery for the population and lower livin

She is not an unreliable source because she lacks knowledge; rather, she is unreliable because she appears to have a specific agenda. If Taiwan is truly unimportant, why would the United States pledge to go to war over an island inhabited by Han Chinese who settled there roughly 70 years ago?

A key factor may be encapsulated in four letters: TSMC. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company produces some of the world’s most advanced microchips. At present, it is the United States—not China—that risks losing access to those cutting-edge chips. Therefore, when she downplays Taiwan’s importance, it likely stems not from ignorance but from bias, or even deliberate misrepresentation. It is plausible she might be sponsored by entities such as the Heritage Foundation—backed by figures like the Koch brothers—who play a sophisticated “chess game” with global affairs.

Regarding military strategy, it is improbable that China would begin a conflict with simple artillery bombardments. A more likely scenario would involve precision-guided cruise missiles capable of striking the exact window of a targeted building, accompanied by swarms of advanced drones and stealth fighters. This would systematically disable Taiwan’s radar systems, command centers, and communications. A maritime blockade would also be likely, given China’s sizable navy. Should the United States attempt to fire on Chinese assets—for instance, a Chinese naval vessel—China could conceivably threaten all 11 U.S. aircraft carriers using hypersonic weapons, which even senior U.S. officials acknowledge are difficult to defend against. In the extreme scenario of a U.S. strike on the Chinese mainland, non-nuclear ICBM salvos might target critical American facilities such as the Pentagon, Fort Bragg, the CIA, and the NSA, aiming to strike when personnel are most present rather than merely destroying buildings.

There is also no reliable defense system against intercontinental ballistic missiles traveling at 20,000 miles per hour, armed with multiple warheads and decoys. Historically, the U.S. has often engaged in wars far from its shores, but—witnessing events in Ukraine—one can see that supply lines are crucial to success. Logistically, it is questionable how the United States could defend an island 8,000 kilometers away, while China is only 80 kilometers from Taiwan.

Moreover, China’s industrial capacity could be fully converted to wartime production—much as the United States did during World War II. This implies the U.S. might face a scenario with no clear path to victory, akin to “a dog barking from inside a cage.” If China were fully determined to retake Taiwan, the United States might have few realistic options to stop it without provoking conflict on a disastrous scale. Even a Chinese embargo could see the U.S. stock market lose half its value in a single day, given that many Fortune 500 companies both source their products from China and rely on Chinese consumers.

Finally, in terms of economic growth, hard data is often overlooked. Despite strict zero-COVID policies—which arguably saved tens of millions of lives, yet were criticized for economic drawbacks—China still grew at 5% last year, whereas the U.S. posted a 2.3% increase. Although 5% may be less than the 10% growth of two decades ago, the base of China’s economy is now vastly larger. Five percent of an $18 trillion GDP surpasses 10% of a $2 trillion GDP in absolute terms.

Hence, dismissing Taiwan’s strategic significance or China’s capabilities overlooks substantial economic, political, and military realities.

Her and Jordan Peterson should be in the Illuminati. I feel like life would be better.

Bullshit. Learn the long history between the motherland of China and Taiwan before discussing it.
Taiwan is not only a historical issue to China, it also refers to the military, economics, etc.
For example, the Taiwan Strait plays a huge role in the PLA's breakthrough of the first island chain and its establishment as a deep blue navy. Solving the Taiwan issue can turn the Taiwan Strait into China's inland sea, no longer international waters. Therefore, when looking at the Taiwan issue, we cannot just say that it is the Communist Party's or nationalist's. Such analysis is too narrow.

I want to see her debate Yarvin

I'm surprise that US still lectures Asians about how Asians operate lol. She's so wrong on many counts and people here actually believe her nonsense? China will remain status quo as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence and there is always chance for unification. China will only go to war over Taiwan if they declare independence. That's why she is so wrong to think China will randomly start attacking Taiwan cities.. dayum westerners are dumb..

Taiwan will cost China everything

She truly knows what she is talking about

Holy shit lady you just described the democrat party in the united states.

So many Chinese bots ....

Learn what's going on in the world from this lady

誰經濟制裁誰？ 還不一定！

这位女士根本不了解中国，任何一个中国领导人都不敢放弃台湾，无关国家是什么制度。
这位女士根本不了解中共，中共是世界上最缺乏安全感的执政党，它每天睁眼第一件事就是看人民如何看待它的，它必须把国家治理好，不然死无葬身之地。
五千年的历史经验告诉中国人，自己的国家该如何改变，中国人也明白早晚中国会再次回到世界一极，这不是任何人和国家能阻止的事，和是不是中共也根本无关，这是历史逻辑。

学者们很多很聪明，但他们并不愿意去竞选总统——所以，现在怎么办呢？别说台湾了，Trump甚至打算卖掉乌克兰。

Lady has no idea what she's talking about. As a Chinese person, I can say with certainty that regardless of who governs China—whether it's the CCP, an emperor, or any other political system—Chinese people's desire for national unity remains unchanged. This has been deeply ingrained in our culture ever since the Qin Dynasty unifies China in 200 BC.

She’s too simple. Taiwan is crucial for China to break out of the first island chain, why would the government want to risk being encircled by the US. You think if they just left Taiwan everything would be nice and friendly? Be real.

Yes sanctions may hurt but when most of the world trades with you and you’re there most important trading partner why would they panicked the US over China. She’s only got a westerners view, shame

Dr. Paine makes the same mistake that numerous other Western China-watchers make, and that is to view China through a Western lens. I have heard these unoriginal and mistaken arguments for the better part of 20 years since I was in college. And perhaps as a sign of our post-reality era, she also blatantly ignores facts on the ground.

Dr. Paine makes three important assertions about China in this video. First, she claims China is hopelessly corrupt. Second, she claims that if economic growth threatens the Party's monopoly on political power, then the Party will jettison economic growth without a second thought. Third, she believes that China should just let Taiwan go because both sides can make more money by trading. I will respond to each of these assertions below.

First, while it is undeniable that corruption exists in China, it is getting better, not worse. If you go to the world-leading organization on corruption, Transparency International, you will see that corruption in China was worst in China in the mid-90s, when China scored 21.60 out of 100, to 43 in 2024. In fact, one of the main reasons for Xi Jinping's popularity is his sustained anti-corruption campaigns, which, according to Transparency International, has borne fruit in the last decade.

Second, the Party's legitimacy in China is tied more to economic growth than any other performance metric. Anyone who knows anything about China understands that the Party's number one goal is to continue lifting Chinese out of poverty. China's economic slowdown in recent years have more to do with tempering runaway debt borrowing, enforcing environmental regulations, and reducing inequality than it is about "relieving entrepreneurs of their enterprises" (last time I checked, Jack Ma is still the single largest shareholder of Alibaba).

And if Western democracies are supposed to deliver policies in the interest of their populations, then why haven't they been doing so for the last half century? Anyone who has lived in the United States knows that the cost of medical care, higher education, housing, and now even groceries (in other words, basic necessities of life), have grown out of reach for a large percentage of the American population. Just to give you one example, the average cost of college tuition in China for Chinese students is around $700 to $1,400 USD per year at public universities, with private universities charging between $2,800 and $4,200 per year. Contrast that with the US, where tuition at public universities range from $9,750 (in-state) to $28,386 (out-of-state), and private universities charge on average $38,421 for tuition and fees. Even adjusted for differences in the per capita GDP of China and the US, higher education is still way more expensive in the US than it is in China.

Third is the matter of Taiwan. If Dr. Paine actually knew anything about China, she would know that the Chinese people (not the CCP) will never give up on the goal of recovering Taiwan. Taiwan is a deeply emotional issue for the Chinese people and is the last reminder of China's "Century of Humiliation." So, I don't care how much power Xi Jinping has, if he declared tomorrow that the PRC will allow Taiwan to become independent, he would be removed from office the day after tomorrow.

And I'll let you in on a secret. The Taiwanese don't actually want independence either. They might say they do, but they actually don't. As the saying goes, "Actions speak louder than words." What actions have Taiwanese taken to prepare for independence (and the inevitable Chinese military response following a Taiwanese declaration of independence)? Have they lengthened the conscription period and enacted universal conscription to include women as well as men? Have they built an outsized arms industry? Have they built and stockpiled nuclear weapons (which Taiwan is perfectly capable of doing)? No. Instead, as the threat from China grows ever larger, Taiwan's defense posture grows steadily laxer. The mandatory service period for military-age males has decreased from 2 years 20 years ago to only 4 months today (and this has all happened under the watch of the so-called "pro-independence" Democratic Progressive Party). As a military veteran myself, I can tell you that a 4-month service period is a joke. You can't even teach a recruit to salute properly in 4 months, much less teach them how to effectively operate complex military equipment on which modern warfighting depends today.

In conclusion, I'm not at all impressed by Dr. Paine's analysis of China. If you want to learn from an actual intellectual, I suggest Prof. John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago.

I like the way that she claimed the China became rich because of the kindness of us and we could take it back easily🤣🤣🤣

DO not be surprised if Taiwan has built some of its own secret weaponry and a very talented cyber offensive group.

As a Chinese, I'm not convinced by her argument. It is right for her to point out that unifying is a big part in Han Chinese culture and it's the best thing the government can use to convince people of why they are doing what they are doing.

But sadly she is not being fair with what's happening in that region. She falls into the cliche of 'oh look how evil and stupid Chinese government is to do crazy things and fxxk up their people's lives' again. She is not addressing the elephant in the room at all, which is the US, who obviously has a strong interest in the region and a major conflict of interest with China. US wants to grow its influence and control in Asia, and Taiwan is the best pressure to pull China back and bargain with China. China is more than happy to get over this but the Americans will simply not allow this to happen.

For the Americans, if you can't understand this, put yourself in the shoes of The Cuban Missile Crisis. As long as the competition between US and China exist, the dispute over Taiwan will not stop, period.

Oh boy.. this video does not age well.. it is very west centered and assume US (EU can play dirt in the corner) will always assumes role of leading global trading. Well, bad news old lady, Donny is in the office, he shows what true color America is 😂 Taiwan is a dog of USA, when USA (not if) falls apart they don’t need to take Taiwan by force, when the world starts to think US is as bad as China, US already lost.. and corruption? Plz.. look at home first, I been using Nancy P stock portfolio beating good old Warren you tell me China is the definition of corruption?

wait until Trump invades greeland!

taiwan is more about strategic foresight lol

China was wealthy and went broke and lost control over Taiwan because of the looting done by western imperialism. The speaker conveniently ignored the root of the issues.

China is fine waiting a thousand years. China is and always has been. It always will be. It's highs and lows are up to time and the rest of the world. But it's never set in stone. A billion years from now, China may take or lose Taiwan. That areas of Asia is socially and culturally always shifting. It's fitting they'd create the yin yang as a symbol, the I chiing where they discovered the elements of time while the Greeks were discovering the elements of matter. You thinking this is cute is proof you don't understand the Chinese. You can't discuss China with our mentioning the king wen sequence, and the entire three kingdoms strategy. Or more importantly, what the Chinese have taken from that time period they keep promoting in media. They're values are on full display. We need leaders in the west that listen to people that understand this culture if they themselves do not. But Americans in general are so un cultured it's seriously about to become more than a thorn in our side. Our inability to assimilate anywhere makes us diplomatically impossible to deal with. But thank God we got the dollar, and lots and lots of guns. Without which we're just spoiled hypocrites ruling over grown ass children that play with ppl lives and countries like it's a game. American citizens need to take hold of their lives and country.

看到这些西方学者的智商，我们就放心了😂

hearing her say clout is funny

N O T H I N G ! The US will not support ANY nation - so China can basically ‘ walk in ‘

…and Trump has been very clear what HE’S up to.

If they’re doing a great job ruling people would support them unconditionally, so why then is the CCP so afraid of losing power? Oh…perhaps…?