Комментарии:
If she wins they cheated again
Ответитьkamala harris did a photo op mocking hurricane victims
ОтветитьA couple of thoughts or questions…. 2020 was an outlier of volume of voters. The electorate was angry about COVID and fed up with the drama surrounding Trump. Biden promised calm and bipartisanship. Up until that election, no presidential candidate had ever received the number of votes Trump received in 2020, letters alone a Republican. Only he was second in no Democrat had ever received as many votes in history as those received by Biden.
You can look at the micro detail but what matters, to some extent, is volume. There really aren’t truly undecideds but people who can’t stand either candidate and will pinch their nose the moment they cast a ballot. What is the prediction of volume? Electorate volume of democrats and that of Republicans (those supporting Harris vs Trump)?
Without considering volume, the ratios from polls or requested mail in ballots creates a wide abyss to leap.
Secondly, again to volume, there are reported more democrat voters than Republican voters. Measuring early activity is not an indicator of total predictive voting volume. It is easy to presume that more republicans are requesting mail in ballots, only means those same voters will not vote in person. Are there more Republican leaning voters or is that number the same as existed in 2020?
Changing voting behaviors does not necessarily mean increased numbers of Trump voters.
I think you may have an anomaly in your model due to voter volume from 2020 to 2024. Maybe not but it is worth studying.
I voted in Texas on the first day of early voting. I’ve never seen numbers that large. My county had 6,500 voters on the first day of early voting and it took me 2 hours to cast a ballot. My observation is more people are voting early. Could it mean more people are voting?
I hope you understand where I am pointing this argument. Volume absolutely matters. Is it 2020 volume or 2012 volume? In 2008, there seemed to be high turn out for Obama but that turn out waned in 2012. Where are the democrats with their engagement compared to republicans?
If nothing has changed, Harris wins. If something is different, Trump wins. I don’t necessarily trust the polling industry and definitely don’t trust Polymarket.
Thanks for your analysis.
Trump 2024!
ОтветитьVote early! Get out now and vote. Don't wait till election day. Registration is good, but without turnout it is nothing! Bury the left (metaphorically) with ballots
ОтветитьAnd Harris’ trip to the border and to WNC was all photo op.. at least trump did something. Harris faked the whole thing.
ОтветитьI voted for Trump in Minnesota weeks ago. Lifelong democrat from a Union family of teachers and laborers.
ОтветитьPA 4 TRUMP🇺🇸
ОтветитьThat's got Scott Pressler's name all over it. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
ОтветитьThe issue has been the cheating. In California, Gavin Newsom and his handlers are getting ready to rig the system again. In my opinion, we would turn into a red state this year if the election were fair. 🙏 Regardless of what happens, my family and friends are all voting for Trump. 🇺🇸
ОтветитьI'm in PA and I'll be voting straight republican ❤ and for president Trump. TRUMP2024 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 ❤❤
ОтветитьTrump is going to be one of the only things in this time-line worth remembering 25 year's from now.
ОтветитьTRUMPY FRIE'S !!!!
ОтветитьNov.6th is when the democRATS rig the election after they find out how many illegal votes they need to win. That's why they're claiming they won't be able to count all the votes until the next day. Like last time, it's rigged overnight. Just watch!
ОтветитьWe owe Scott Presler a HUGE thank you!
ОтветитьA lot of technical terms and jargon make it hard to understand what you mean. It's a long stream of information, but only for the initiated. I know you know what you are talking about, but you assume we do too.
Maybe try a little chunking down?
I would give anything to know just how many "votes" aren't legit..
ОтветитьParty registration doesn't seem to mean anything. The Dems are about to reach their 700,000 goal in their early-vote totals! It's done. Trump just lost PA. I honestly don't get how this is possible, given how much ground the Republicans have gained this election cycle. But there it is.
ОтветитьDelaware County, Montgomery County, and Philadelphia in Pa., I saw a video about Dominican voting machines ! The guy at a town hall, with Elon Musk the gentleman said, he has video and transcripts of illegal voting from 2020 and it’s not fixed for 2024!
ОтветитьNothing is real at this point. Go out and vote!
ОтветитьIf there are any registered Dems voting for Trump that read this, PLEASE VOTE R DOWN BALLOT. NO TICKET SPLITTING. WE DON'T WONT 20 IMPEACHMENTS IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THIS WILL NOT BE A LAME DUCK CONGRESS!!!!
ОтветитьWe voted early for Trump!
ОтветитьNumbers are meaningless if they don't lead to the desired result.
The democrats will rig this election harder than ever before. Do not accept Harris.
You couldn’t be more biased & cherry picking numbers to fit your trump worship narrative.
ОтветитьI voted Trump yesterday in Georgia
ОтветитьCalifornia Blue voter am voting RED - Trump!
ОтветитьMinor correction: They posted the full unedited video. Trump worked at McDonalds for about half an hour. Not multiple hours. It's perfectly fair for Trump haters to call it a stunt because it totally was a campaign stunt but calling it a failed stunt is TDS. It was a successful stunt.
ОтветитьMaybe Kamala has been spending too much time with Tim Walz = reminiscing about things that never happened.
ОтветитьIf any candidate isn't tired then they aren't trying hard enough. There's more that they could do if they aren't even tired yet. If I had Trump's itinerary I'd be exhausted.
ОтветитьGeorge W. Bush for Trump!
ОтветитьI think I will now refer to Kamala's line of working at a McDonalds as a "baseless claim", and "debunked".
ОтветитьI'm in Oregon voting for TRUMP 🇺🇲🍟❤️
ОтветитьProof positive Kamalalala never worked at Mickey Dee's - someone would remember that laugh had she. It is horribly unforgetable.
ОтветитьAlarm off alarm my friends in the swing States been you two and me and telling me and texting me and telling me about they're going voting for Kamala men women a lot of people to tell me to go out and vote for Kamala and then they find out their name is no longer on the phone list and they asked me what did I do can I stop them can I put my name back on the phone list and I say yes to show up and personal and put their name on it but they didn't tell me about Donald j Trump got four bulldogs that he got his people in the swing States am I from State their challenge my boats and I said what do you mean that challenge your boat they said that's exactly why I mean they're changing my phone and my phone got thrown out in the trash can and I said nobody can challenge your boat and they kept telling me but don't get Trump got these January 6th people in the in the in the voting places and I told him to go down there and just throw a driver's license
ОтветитьMy sister , mom and myself all voted for Trump in Orlando FL. We love America 🇺🇸. Let’s make it great again !
ОтветитьWA STATE ...TRUMP!
ОтветитьMake sure you all go out and vote for Trump!
ОтветитьTrump has an extreme amount of energy for his age. Like I'm 36, I'm fit and all I want is to laze around when I get home after work.
ОтветитьI read a story, where the MSM was trying to say "Kamala definitely worked at McDonalds because her friends said so." I worked at Pat And Oscars restaurant as a kid, you can check with the IRS.
ОтветитьLeftist once again demonstrate that they are unable to understand that words mean things.
There is a difference between working AT McDonald's and working FOR McDonald's.
Thank you Elon!
ОтветитьI just saw a video by Nextnewsnetwork that they are still planning to steal the election with voter fraud just like 2020. We can’t get complacent. I hope people will look at what I’m talking about and spread the word. We can’t waste time.
ОтветитьVoted for Trump. Georgia Girl
ОтветитьWonderful
ОтветитьI'm from Philly and you see a ton of trump support in the burbs across the board. Philly is more red leaning than people think, we're a working city afterall
Ответитьsome dumb ass told me I was "reaching" calling waltz failed hunting trip a photo op, the cope on that buffoon.
ОтветитьNice, i would of been surprised if it was anything different, everyone i know that normally would Vote Demoncrat will not be this round, its so obvious how messed the people are that run this country now and for the last 4 years
ОтветитьDon't let plausible cheatability prevail like last time. Make it too big to rig!
ОтветитьVote early !
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