newcomb's paradox

Duke Newcomb

I’ve listened to this like 5 times and I still don’t get it

Wait so if you pick box 2 you just get a million dollars just like that? I’m confused

Uhh no my uhh cat is in front of me
So I pick my cat did the computer guess that bet not

Taking the two boxes, if we’re on the second floor jump off, I believe I can fly

I mean 1000 dolars. That shit is like gold in my country

Just take the supercomputer

I’d pick box 2. Yeah it’d suck to not get anything but either way it’s like this never happened or this did happen and you won 1M dollars

I will take both the boxes X}

This hurts my brain

My response: fuck computers give me my money.

But what if I make an unimaginable variable with choosing box 1 as such making a choice out of the computer's database

I would pick box 1

Witch one is box two?

You can change your life with a million dollars with the thousand you can fill your gas tank once. Maximizing your reward doesn't matter when your In perfect balance financially if you give me a thousand dollars I can do very little with it why do I need or want it at all. Unless your homeless it's not a good comparison now if you had said 40k or 1 million then I would try and maximize my reward.

A billionaire funds the revival of the neanderthal. He dies before the project is complete. The neanderthal then is examined. The billionaire’s dna is inside it. It also has all the memories of the billionaire. As it turns out, he also had his dna transferred into the Neanderthal, and the scientists still know the original data, which is a very very distant relative of the billionaire. So, is the billionaire truly dead?

Although that may be a paradox that takes a while to solve, it doesn’t matter, as extinct species are already being revived. Although this paradox is just that, a paradox, the premise of extinct animals being brought back to life isn’t just science fiction, it’s real. And it already has been done, along with this, though the ethics are a maze to get through, I think that this validates the opinion that reviving extinct species is ethical, and justified.

that loop tho

this is my favourite paradox of all time.

Pick nothing or not even be there at all

The astley paradox:
If you ask Rick astley for a copy of the movie up, he will not because he will never give you up, therefore he will have just let you down. Therefore creating the astley paradox.

i choosing box 2 bc it says that super computer is rlly smart n shit, so i’m gonna trust that it chose box 2. it also says that since it’s super smart it will predict what your going to choose, and i wouldn’t want to make the sign subtle. just say something like “ i’m choosing box 2” and boom it’ll predict that ur choosing box two and you get a million buckaroos

I’ll pick box no 1.

takes box 1

Taking box 2 idc

Just take the computer instead

Maybe I am dumb but i didn't understand a thing about the supercomputer.

my brain hurts.

what is the song name

i choose box 1

But I picked box 1-

"THE SUPERCOMPUTER HAS ALREADY MADE ITS PREDICTION!!"

What if u only choose box 1?

why the fuck would i not pick box 2

Sounds like AI is a rival against a supercomputer

I choose box 1

The computer knows I will want to maximize the chances.

pick box 2 only

I would use the decision of a quantum generator, as it would be 100 percent random.

Me: grabs the computer

Sorry, I don't speak English well. Can someone explain this to me?
Why take both boxes? You can only get what's in the box two only when you pick the box two exclusively, right??
So taking the both boxes knowing that there's a million dollars in box two doesn't make sense cos then you only get a thousand dollars in box one?

What is this game???

I'd flip a coin.

proceeds to focus on the minecraft parkour in the background

Box 2

*who cares, at least I can get a free box.*

This sentence is false

flip a coin 50/50 you win

ima grab that computer and run

Jokes on you, I thought I could only pick one at first!

Statistics and probability are just a way for us to calculate risks and decisions based on limited knowledge. In fact the computer either put the money in the box, or it did not. If we roll a die based on physics and our throw, and wind conditions the number will land ecactly as predicted if we had knowledge of every factor and input.

All this is to say we could describe the chance of money being in the box as 50/50 and thus the expected value would be half a million for taking box 2. However taking both would be half a million and a 1000 dollars. Thus it would be correct to take both.

But then you can also utilize the statistics of beating the machine. Since 0 out of 200 people (simce it was said 100's of people were on the game show) have beat the machine you can say that the odds of you beating the machine are probably less than 2%. However put another way a scientist wouldn't be confident enough to say the error rare is less than 2% yet on this machine. (There just haven't been a large enough sample size for such a low number) thus the expected value could generously be said to be 2% of 1,000,000. Thats 21000 dollars!!! More than just taking box 1 alone, even though that isnt an option. Still there is a 98% chance of getting 1 million by taking box 2 alone which would be $979,000 in expected value. Thus in this situation it would be wise to ignore the obvious fact of the matter that whether the million is in there or not choosing both would give the box's content to you. This situation leverages the track record of the computer in your favor.

Still I'd personally say that statistics shouldn't be used in a case like this... since taking both boxes is an option and the computers choice is determined beforehand, it is always beneficial to take both boxes.

I'll take my $1000 and be on my way

I dont get it, anyone explain in simple terms?