Florida Market Update: Sales CRATER

I was looking in the metro Gainsville area and it is very expensive. Impossible to find a decent 3/2 under 325 to 350+. That is where prices start. Better to have 400 to 450 if looking in that area. Whi has this kind of money?

Is there such a thing as price per bedroom?

Typical the crap goes up wit the rest your seeing the crap dropping
Quality real estate still sell and holds its values
You are telling crap

Then why are they building thousands of homes within a 20 mile radius of me?? Why are the roads 10 times more crowded than ever? People are buying new houses, nobody wants an old house for the same price as a new one.

Just spent a month in Palm Springs CA. A lot more homes for sale than last year. Expensive, but, not selling. And prime selling month, March, is over. Bottom line, houses too expensive and sellers have to lessen their expectations.

This is really great information. I am not a real estate agent but study the market. Is there a way to get access to this data? Does the same exist for Texas, California?

Most realtors are women....

The trumpy depression is going to ruin Florida. Florida is trumpyland, and what goes around comes around. Expect high inflation, high unemployment and house prices falling by 50%

Average & Median pricing manipulated especially for new builds. Incentives such as $$$ give backs at closing are not reflected in home sale pricing. It’s done as a give back for that reason so depreciation isn’t transparent.

Can you explain where the pending sales data comes from? As a life long Florida resident I remember the numbers in 2008. I distinctly remember Orlando area being the “highest ever” at 10,000 homes sometime in 2008. Now it’s 3x that. I just can’t buy we have 3x as many properties for sale in 2008. Reventure is showing highest ever? I think their data set is wrong or they are including something no one else is

It's definitely going back to 400K+ listings over the next five years. There's no demographic group standing behind the Boomers with required numbers (and equally deep pockets) to take these properties off of their hands, especially not at C-19 prices.

BTW, Sarasota is largely a wealthier city and the higher price points would be a signal of the bifurcated economy.

Are you paying attention to the issues with FHA and them hiding foreclosures? Many making no payments and some even taking cash out and not making payments. It gets stuck on the back of the loan at 0% interest. This is one of the bs things to make the economy seem stronger. Crazy… while many people are doing the right thing their neighbors are buying crap, going out to eat…. That bill comes due at some point.

Any data on Northeast Florida?

Ben for Lee county I do not believe the % of price decline. I ask, is that reduction off the latest listing price OR the original listing price? I have been following a very specific HOA in FM and the prices have decline 15%.

Dont believes any data from collier county

Collier: we have an extraordinary amount of very high priced properties. Yes the luxury market is definitely skewing the numbers. And look, I was here working in the real estate Arena back in the last late great unpleasantness, and I could tell you when it comes to Florida, Collier seems to be the last place that hits but it certainly gets hit hard. My guess is it will this time around as well. I'm actually counting on it. Just because a few of the higher-end homes sell at or above list for whatever reason, doesn't mean the rest of the inventories squeezed into the 500k to 1M is selling like hotcakes or at list.

Absolutely amazing content! But, you forgot Manatee County, please include that next time!

Ben, back in 2008 the listings reached 200K because MANY of them were forced to sell due to being distressed. They were so many shortsales it was ridiculous. This has yet to unfold NOW because there is still equity and not "distressed" ...yet. But that will come when the sellers give up their equity for waiting.

It’s crazy how realtors who actually service the FL markets are saying one thing, whereas the YT realtor experts from out of state are saying another thing about FL.

Thanks!

In about 5-7 years these bad numbers are going to seem like the good old days. Florida is about to get hit with a massive demographic cliff in the number of retirees. Over the next 4 years the final years of Boomers will hit 66 and retire. Then comes the cliff. At the same time the earlier Boomers will pass over 80 which means their death rate will explode. In about 7 years the number of Boomers dying will exceed the number of new retirees. And the excess will grow over the following decade. As if that’s not bad enough, the Carolinas have made huge gains in attracting retirees. Florida no longer has a monopoly. Add the fact that average new retirees are far less financially prepared (lack of pensions and savings) than early Boomers. They can’t afford all those $1-$2 million 3000-4000 sqft 4 bedroom houses the big builders have built over the past 15 years. All together Florida real estate is toast.

I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 385K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% annually in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks will be appreciated.

Ben, yes the Collier data appears to be correct this time. I agree with you that's its amazing the prices in Naples are holding up. Of note, as of March 27, 2025, there are 84 SF homes listed for $3million and above that are pending. A lot of these are spec homes priced above $6 million. It will be interesting to see their closing prices relative to list prices.

You are an absolute idiot to buy now. This is the absolute peak of the market. This is a razor-sharp knife that is ready to start plummeting.

The only place I see in SWFL that has somewhat sane single family home prices is Punta Gorda.
It seems like a nice quaint little town especially the Historic area.
The beach is a little far away.
I don’t understand, though, why there seems to be a mass exodus out of Punta Gorda. That’s a red flag for me.

It’d be nice if you touched on the panhandle a little bit

Just interested in condos

I would expect to see continued price declines, especially on properties where people are trying to sell before the next hurricane season begins. I am surprised at the data, I expected to see more damage from the post pandemic frenzy, but then again, we haven't bottomed out yet.

Thanks Ben

Time for the private banker Fed to mouse-click more trillions of fake dollars out of thin air ? To save the banks and the rich again ? You bet

Ben is spot on~! Here is history of a home that sold in Naples recently- notice the downward trajectory in price- taxes reached over $20K with the $1.95 sales price . Long time on the market and seller took a bath to the tune of about $400K to unload- just a sign of things to come.!
Many price reductions in Naples- a good sign but still homes vastly overpriced!
Jan 23, 2025
127 days after listed
Sold
Naples
$1,600,000
-23.81%
$501/sqft
2024
Dec 4, 2024
Price decreased
Naples
$1,899,000
-$100,000
$595/sqft
Nov 12, 2024
Price decreased
Naples
$1,999,000
-$101,000
$626/sqft
Sep 18, 2024
Listed
Naples
$2,100,000
+7.69%
$658/sqft
Jun 25, 2024
Listing removed
BonitaSprings
$2,250,000
$705/sqft
2022
Apr 13, 2022
60 days after listed
Sold
BonitaSprings
$1,950,000
-2.26%

You don’t see price drops because most Florida realtors don’t negotiate on behalf of buyers. Not even if they’re friends of the buyers. They tell them to “buy now before you miss it” whatever the price. Most Americans don’t negotiate for anything, frankly. Don’t know how. Don’t even consider trying. They accept the price and either buy or don’t buy.

Collier has the most delusional sellers. They bought a house that sold for 350k in 2021/22 for 700k in 2023 and now they want a 1m+

Don't let sarasota county fool you. Majority of home sales in this area are 1+ mil properties on the beach. Luxury market is booming while regular homes are at a standstill

Does that include all the new builds?

Good time to buy,hurricane season🎉

Great updates,thanks a lot

Avg and Median prices distorts reality when higher portion of sales in luxury end...

Please give more on North Port. It’s not really sarasota totally different market

The major problem is insurance companies not doing their own inspections. In Florida you need to hire your own inspections. They need to get their act together. People who want to self insure are rising

Thanks, love the data but don’t know what to make of it…especially Collier county…..prices should logically be cracking and trending down

Thank you Ben ! Very informative.

Took a drive around and in Savannah today really ugly out there very much no change from 2022 crash as far as reversing that trend so who the lenders were to all of this obviously Canada was one...know how that's now playing out😢😢

I am sure fighting with Canadians who buy a lot of Florida homes and spend a lot of money there will be great for the long term market. 🤦‍♂🤔

Could you check Clay county next time?

I'm a cash buyer, but not with the way insurance is rising.

Houses are too high and interest rates are forcing up payments. Maybe we need AI bot listing agents to save homeowners money. AI could verify the new taxes and insurability of homeowners purchase

Somebody is cooking the books. Pricing is off. Inventory is piling up in Florida. Corp businesses are closing, credit cards are maxed out.

2008 all over again. Just give it time. Once people start loosing equity - its done deal.

It is great you talk about the data and don’t sugar coat the market like many FL realtors do. Such a turn off when you talk to a realtor that sugarcoats everything. You give both sides which is needed. I am an investor so when I talk to realtors that are not in reality with the market it turns me off instantly.