This New Poll Could Mean DISASTER For Trump

Don't you think he looks tired?

Trump looks like a bio-organic mech

So you are wrong, trump will win because of stupid squirrel

this is still a channel?

If you want an idea how accurate polling is just look at the shit movie studios think people will actually enjoy.... Yeah same principle.

that PV ad feels like satire lmao like what

Hopefully the women's vote will come through for Harris/Walz. If older women are breaking for Kamala that is great and makes sense. They finally figured out that the MAGA guys want to keep them subjugated.

American elections are always cringe. Let's elevate the cringe showing that we can't possibly do anything good if it's not gamified first. I just hope that at least works

Sounds like polls in the US is stuck in a local stable minimum. They would be very accurate if the representative sample is touched. The margin of error is a pure mathematical resultant of the population size vs the sample size. You can get to within arbitrarily small margins with large enough polls. I don't understand this model magic. It's like the same old "we can't afford Healthcare because the us is large". America is also the richest, and the amount of money spent in campaigns is more than enough to do a proper poll. How come no other country has this stupid mystical approach to polling. If a poll says 49% with 1% margin it's because they sampled 2456 people of a total 34million and that is the fucking margin. And polls release their sample size, you cannot claim a margin of error, it is a fact we can all check given the sample size. Wtf is going on here, did I study alien statistics or are these pollsters quacks?

Vaush is actually deranged on Lictman. "I don't take him seriously" (even though his model has correctly predicted pretty much every single presidential election in the modern era). "I take this other pollster seriously because she has correctly predicted pretty much every single major Iowa race." That is inconsistent af!
Lictman was simply saying "hey, switching out Biden removes key advantages an incumbent has which could lead to a replacement losing." Fact. When the switching out occurred, Lictman, as an academic, switched the factors and made a new prediction based on the new candidate with the same outcome of Democrats winning. This doesn't mean that the win is as certain as it would have been before under his model. It does not mean that Lictman was saying that a new candidate could not win against Trump. Like Jesus man, how can you be so dense. Dude has gotten every election (he got Gore wrong, but no one could have predicted the fiasco in Florida) correct lol. That deserves some respect. He wasn't wrong, he just never stated that Harris couldn't win, he was saying that an incumbent Biden would have certain structural advantages a replacement candidate (who is now Harris but wasn't necessarily going to be Harris at the time since the debate was happening) doesn't have. It's dishonest hackery,

POLLS MEAN NOTHING!!! VOTE!!! VOTING IS ALL THAT MATTERS

God that ad in every video is so goddamn annoying.

Nobody is saying that Allen Lichtmans predictive model is always 100% accurate, as its just a prediction, not a guarantee.

But so far it HAS been 100% accurate in its predictions. Its not magic 8 ball, its basically just civil unrest, economics, and incumbent advantages weighed against each other.

In an infinie span of time, Id wager it could pass +68% predictive success. Its not just random, and not particularly subjective. The only subjective part is the scaling of national events.

Vaush quotes Patrick Bateman, I push the like button.

please for the love of god Trump needs to lose

"You are never nutting in a woman okay? At least not with permission"

JESUS CHRIST LMAO

Haerding sounds like greading on a Curve and sounds like adding bias to the model. I was heavy warned about is in my AI and computer information classes

Still not doing shit for pv i see

Osaaama, i will vote for Osaaaamaaaaa

Here's some hopium, I dont think it's going to be nearly as close as everyone claims for several reasons.
Trump has lost twice already, once against an incredibly unlikeable Hillary Clinton, and once against the mummified corpse of Joe Biden.
His maga supporters are obviously ride or die for him so I'm not counting them, I'm talking about the undecided voters, the smooth brain median voters, the non Maga republican voters.
Trump is just an unlikeable guy, he's rude abrasive and narcissistic, he's nepotistic, he's a compulsive liar, he very obviously uses Christianity as a performative object, and compares himself to untouchable figures like MLK, Abraham Lincoln, George Washington and fkn Jesus Christ.
He's dialed up the racist and misogynistic rhetoric quite a bit since his 2016 run.
He's had 4 years in office and I know that the majority of America have goldfish brains and can't remember what the economy was like under Obama of know that Trump inherited that economy. But what they DO remember is that Trump ran on "draining the swamp" then proceeded to hire his own family to positions of government, fire people he directly hired and called them part of the swamp, give tax breaks to "the swamp".
More than anything, the fact that Trump isn't running with Pence as his VP is very unattractive to a lot of people, how can we trust you to be a good leader if your own VP doesn't want to run on your ticket again?
Not to mention his military comments, and his helping of Putin, of Russia, a country that the majority of Americans view as enemy number 1

I’ma be real: one of the main takeaways from my econometrics class is that there are like a bunch of different things that make a model less reliable and they’re all basically unavoidable. Models are hard :(

What a thumbnail

I wish I could vote blue to save my future but I live in Finland. Just having to watch my future being decided by some absolute americans is quite horrifying🥲

From GA, got my early vote in and my grandma has been speaking for Harris within her groups! Let's get our votes heard!

drump is finished it's over for him

These Titles are stupid…
„Harris dominantes“
„Shocking Polls for Trump“
All over the left such titles… continue… push Trump fans to go to vote while telling the other side: don’t be afraid, Kamala leads so far in the polls, what could go wrong, safe win like 2016… Oh … well …
so stupid….

Musk move to texas and support trump… this is all you need to turn to blue

Trump is fucked lol

If Iowa is actually close and older white midwestern women are voting Kamala in big numbers, it means Trump has no chance in PA, WI, and MI, and that's the ballgame.

Selzer is almost never wrong.

I sure hope this is the case, but isn't that what copium is?

what the hell is this ad

Most Iowa polls have Trump way ahead. This poll seems inaccurate.

I told you I would manifest Bliowa, and you laughed at me

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 TRUMP 2024

Trugly

In 2016 my senior hs econ class correctly predicted a trump win based on a model thats been right every time except once, 2 questions really simple, compare inflation and unemployment the election year to the year prior, if its down then the incumbent party wins, if one is up then the other party wins. Seems simpleton enough to explain the gen pop although for binary outcomes you can overfit a model so easily.

Trump in Fallout 1 & 2 graphics is insane

Student in Iowa here. I can see the backlash to the Iowa Supreme Court upholding the legislature’s nightmarish abortion ban turning people out big time. On a campus so I don’t have a good sense of the “real” Iowa voter but the youth is definetly energized.

It’s all about who gets off their ass to vote so I could see a surprising result if not a blue victory

Is anyone like actualy excited about being alive, or are you just going through the motions with enough to distract yourself from how pointless life is plus the fact that the idea of suicide is scarry.

Iowa has a lot of actual farmers. If conservative farmers actually believe Trump when Trump says he will use the alien and sedations act to use the military to round up all of their undocumented farm workers and throw them in camps the first thing they will realize is "this will bankrupt me" Some of them can backpeddle it to he will round up the bad hombre gang members first, but first just means their farm workers get rounded up later in the year during the harvest.

Funniest election night lets gooooo

Y'all better get out there and vote

Welp

This aged poorly

DISASTER I TELLS YA 😂

Turns out that truth nuke was in fact a lie nuke

Come here to laugh at Vauch.