Predicting The Global Economy (w/ Raoul Pal) | Macro Insiders | Real Vision™

Would be interesting to see an update for 2019

Oh boy Pal's predictions didn't age well!

Thanks for upload

Very generous of you to share these insights. Thank you!

Hello, little question for anyone reading this: Does CPI or inflation really matter in countries that can borrow in their own currency since we switched to fiat money? It seems to me that the Fed responsibilities are outdated

This is so brilliant - I look at it every few months to refresh my thoughts about how we are currently doing!

Yet S&P up by 40% since this video on June 20, 2016

Great information video. Yep it is all about the baby boomers retiring.

Huge Big Tick - 1. I had some astute & honest teachers in Political Science & Economics who 1. yes: taught the strict curriculum, but 2. dropped hints about 'real world economics', for example the neglected, unfashionable field of behavioural economics (Thorstein Veblen) and other Paradigmatic thinkers eg Joseph Schumpeter's long innovation-investment cycle 3. Pure Math Grad friend said (correctly) "it is invalid to statistically extrapolate outside the original/source data-set" 4. Which is confirmed by BLUE & BUE estimates that are set up in very sophisticated modelling-form but involve very large error terms once the forecast is pushed-out (even for very high R2 & P) 5. For myself I independently found the story of Nikolai Kondratieff (1865-1938) and how his views led to his being purged in a labour camp by the Soviet authorities in 1938. Probably because repetitive/recurrent cyclical models not in sync with the great hope for 'Socialism in One Country' 1917-1945 6. Finally Joseph Clement Juglar, a Fr. physician & statistician discovered the decadal (10 year) business cycle. Which can be quite easily picked-up (with some variation in ea. economy) post WW2 1966, 76, 86, 96, '06 ... '16 (points of inflection ?)

Given the intervention by central banks these days I wonder if any of this is still relevant.

This was 2016.

What is your view on Indian economy, will it face hyper inflation

he was wrong as he went short and lost money, he mentioned this in a 2019 vid

All comments are thankful for this video

Always appreciate the quality of these conversations & your generosity in making them available to the people

you get a A+ today......

And now what. Gold like on my channel??

This is completely useless when you got a crooked Fed that manipulates the business cycle

Excelent Raoul

The best video (tutorial) I have seen on real world economics yet. Thanks.

excellent work

The ISM manufacturing index already hit 46

Too many Old People always slows things down,

Thank you Raoul and Real Vision: this is stunning in that it's clear, well thought out, and actionable. You've made a believer out of me and I look forward to subscribing and using your framework.

sir thank you you going to help lots of people with what you are doing thank you

Thank you Raoul! I value your expertise

What I keep hearing these macro guys say is that the US will eventually be the biggest bust ever. How do I invest in that?

4 years later, this video aged pretty well. Well done Raoul

Excellent video...first time I’ve heard someone discuss Kondratieff since the 2000 bubble

Ceteris paribus pronounced like "se-ter-es pa-re-bes."

thank you very much

"to try to pretend everything is a science is lunacy" this is one of the best quotes of all time.

One of the most educative videos ever!
Thanks for sharing it.

Thank you!!🙏

I studied economics for my undergrad and I found myself frustrated for many of the same reasons.

Watching this in February 2021, five years later, and the bust has not happened yet.
Now we have the Corona Virus, many companies will go bust and we will be in a recession, maybe depression.

Didn't turn out right, but still a great video.

Does anybody know where I can get access to those charts? i.e. Long-Term Equity Cycle, OCGMI Composite Super Cycle, Debt Cycle.

Raul, I love your insights. Is there an update with actual numbers? Fingers crossed on the Cryptos right now.

A truly exceptional communicator.

Real Vision please do a follow up with more insights this was absolutely unreal .

Update this for 2022 please

I wish Raul can come back and comment on this video

Thank you very much Sir, really Enlightening and crucial In-depth brilliant Macro and Business cycle analyses. This is why I purchased your Real Vision Essential course. Thank you!

I would absolutely suggest every retail investor to watch and understand this thoroughly. This is true investing, not technical analysis or all those scams out there.

Bro why does this video only get 100K views while those scam technical analysis videos get 10s of millions of views. Humans are such greedy bastards.

Real education here...