Is Alibaba Stock a Value Trap?

HJGWhite, I turned on notifications!

you are really smar. SUBSCRIBE already
can you do BIDU also?
much appreciate,thanks

What a moron. Relating value with gambling

biggest chyma trap 😂

Good video overall, but you should have addressed the issues of increased competition in the space in China (PDD, JD), and the risk of total loss of capital if China decided to attack Taiwan, resulting in sanctions, and most likely the inability for investors to sell their shares.
Arisk of 100% loss, however extremely unlikely, does affect the risk/reward pretty heavily, and should be mentioned. It makes sense that some people wouldn't want to expose themselves to such a risk.

I prefer the phrase "cheap for a reason" or really just focusing on the concept of "risk-adjusted" returns. Companies can become very "cheap" because the risk is exorbitant or at least perceived to be so, and they can become "cheap" because the future is actually grim. The trick of value investing lies in determining which cheaply priced companies are incorrectly priced so. "Avoid the losers. The winners will take care of themselves." -Howard Marks

the idea of the risk behind Alibaba is multi-fold.
1. China Macro looks grim and could be a sort of Japan-like story where growth is permanently impaired. In this case share price is justified as its pricing in minimal growth.
2. Alibaba is being outcompeted by the likes of Temu and risks being ground into the dust of obsolescence by future competitors. In this case the valuation is justified by risk of loss of market share.
3. Alibaba shares are at risk of capital control legislation/executive action in the event of further escalation and therefore invested money may see permanent capital impairment. This is similar to the situation where the US detained Russian assets.

If all of these perceived risks fail to be actualized then yeah its a one in a lifetime opportunity. If 2 or more of them are actualized then yeah its reasonably priced. A discount rate is subjective because the future is unknowable. Making a video that is optimally bullish which neglects the reality of potential future outcomes in order to "talk one's book" is flat out irresponsible. Please be more fair in distributing content.

At this point, it is almost like a scam. Diminishing market share, capped growth and lack of innovation.

Your video deserves more number of views and likes. It's been 6 years and you produce quality content, which is not a easy thing to do.

I said before, as I’m Korean, it looks like they have a big competitor in the world. They sell all their products at really cheap prices, and the CCP doesn’t like that Jack Ma opposed their rules. It is not about investing value or intrinsic value, just a political issue in China, in my view. But also, I have a small position in Alibaba. I still hope it will rise again.
Thanks

Pure scam

Baba is a scam trap it's lost 500 billion in value. Then. The company scooped its worthless shares at 11 dollars a share a total scam

If there’s even a 0.01 chance that china blockades Taiwan in the next 5 years then may god have mercy on any Chinese investment you have .. as well as some american stocks 😉(nvidea)

Alibaba has really blown up since you posted this video, though it has dipped slightly again.

Forgot to say this in the video but I am an Alibaba investor so I am BIASED. This video is not financial advice, just a place for me to share my thoughts and insights.